Argentina vs Croatia

Lionel Messi must shake off a disappointing opening to the World Cup as Argentina look ahead to a tough test against Group C rivals Croatia today.

Messi missed a penalty as Argentina drew 1-1 with group minnows Iceland, while Croatia impressed with a professional 2-0 win over Nigeria.

Argentina will still be confident of progressing to the knockout stages - especially with a disjointed Nigeria side in their final group game - but Croatia will fancy their chances of causing an upset and living up to their billing as potential dark horses of the tournament.

Scroll down for Standard Sport's comprehensive preview...

Group C P W D L F A Pts

Croatia 1 1 0 0 2 0 3

Argentina 1 0 1 0 1 1 1

Iceland 1 0 1 0 1 1 1

Nigeria 1 0 0 1 0 2 0

Argentina faces Croatia on Thursday in Nizhny Novgorod with first place in Group D up for grabs ahead of Iceland and Nigeria on Friday. It's an early, massive match at the World Cup. Croatia is coming off a 2-0 win over Nigeria while Argentina couldn't find its scoring boots in a 1-1 draw with Iceland.

Expect Croatia to stick with a similar lineup to the first match, though it may field a more defensive-oriented lineup with with Mateo Kovacic in the middle. As for Argentina, the squad should look much different. In training, Jorge Sampaoli has replaced Angel Di Maria with Cristian Pavon, Marcos Acuna could join the lineup and it looks like the team won't go with a defensive midfield duo. It could be Enzo Perez or Maxi Meza to add a tad more balance in the midfield.

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Three huge points are at stake and the pressure is on the South Americans. A win for Croatia would practically mean it would advance to the knockout stage.

Here's how you can watch the match and more. Argentina laboured to an opening draw against newcomers Iceland but will aim to step it up a gear against a dogged Croatia side who overcame NigeriaLionel Messi and Argentina look to bounce back after a surprising opening-game result at the 2018 World Cup when they take on Croatia at 2 p.m. ET on Thursday. Argentina was shocked in a 1-1 draw with Iceland, while Croatia cruised past Nigeria 2-0 to gain three points and take the lead in Group D. Now, it's Argentina that needs a victory to keep itself in position to advance to the knockout stage.

Argentina is posted at -105 for Thursday's match, meaning you'd need to wager $105 to win $100 on an outright victory. Croatia is at +310 (risk $100 to win $310), while a draw is at +235 World Cup odds. The Over-Under on total goals scored is 2.

Before you make your plays, you need to see what European football expert David Sumpter has to say.

Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote "Soccermatics," a book that explains how math works inside the sport. Together with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.

The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In nearly three seasons since its inception, the Soccerbot is up an incredible 1,800 percent against closing sportsbook odds.

That includes nailing the Argentina-Iceland draw, nailing the pick for a massive +385 payout. It also accurately predicted the Brazil-Switzerland draw (+360), Iran winning at +275, and Senegal upsetting Poland at +220. Those who have laid $100 on Sumpter's World Cup picks are way, way up.

Now the Soccerbot has digested the film, crunched the numbers and broken down every single player on Argentina and Croatia. The model has released a very strong money line pick, which it's sharing over at SportsLine.

The model knows Argentina could not break through against Iceland, but dominated the match overall. Messi, one of the top footballers in history, missed a penalty kick. Still, Argentina outshot Iceland 27-8 and held possession for 78 percent of the match.

Argentina is the fifth-ranked team in the world, while Croatia is 20th. The Croatians overwhelmed Nigeria, though their scores came on a penalty kick and an own goal.

While Argentina has Messi, Croatia has Real Madrid star Luka Modric manning the midfield. Croatia is filled with players from top European leagues and won't be intimidated.

So which hungry nation wins Thursday? Or does it end in a draw? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong Argentina-Croatia money line pick, all from a European football expert whose powerful model is up 1,800 percent in less than three years.

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